Minuk Kim

When tariff pass-through is stronger for low-markup products, a uniform tariff falls hardest on consumers who buy low-markup products. Using product-level data on the 2019 U.S. tariff on single malt Scotch, with untariffed blended Scotch as control, I find a 14% retail price increase for cheap single malts versus 4–5% for premium products. Combining this pass-through with a demand model shows that low-income consumers lose a 1.6 times larger share of consumer surplus than high-income consumers do. Despite a uniform statutory tariff rate, income differences in price sensitivity generate regressivity, which heterogeneous pass-through amplifies by a quarter.

When a small producer is acquired by a firm with an established distribution network, its products can reach markets whose fixed access costs blocked independent entry. We formalize this in a rollout model where a merger sinks the access cost and the acquirer deploys its network selectively: more for products with high latent demand, less for those that cannibalize its portfolio, and most for foreign products with no domestic presence. Using 39 U.S. spirits mergers, we find no average expansion, but sharp reallocation toward distinctive, high-demand, and especially foreign products, and away from portfolio-adjacent ones.

When foreign governments retaliate against U.S. exports, the income loss lands in specific producer communities and reaches local retailers as a demand shock. Because national chains do not adjust prices to local demand, I argue that the consumer burden falls on margins that price indices miss. Using Nielsen consumer panel data merged with county exposure to China’s 2018 agricultural tariffs, I find that total grocery spending falls by less than 1 percent while purchases shift toward private-label goods and dollar stores. The form of adjustment depends on retail market structure. Exposed households in concentrated retail markets substitute toward cheaper products within category, and those in unconcentrated markets do not.